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中文Entering September 2026, the lithium battery industry is defined by diverging price and volume trends, tightening policy measures, and accelerating technological progress. Based on the latest production data, raw material pricing, and global policy developments, here are three key insights for cross-border procurement and industrial decision-making.
1. Record-High Production Across All Segments, Consumption Tax Drives Price Pass-Through
According to Xiluo Lithium Battery data, domestic battery production scheduling reached 211.3GWh in September, up 6.3% month-on-month. Output of cathode, anode, separator, and electrolyte materials all rose in tandem, hitting year-to-date highs across the board.
Growth is driven by two core forces: peak demand from domestic energy storage installation and accelerating EV adoption in Europe, and the upcoming year-end export tax rebate window, which has prompted manufacturers to stock up early for shipments.
Meanwhile, China officially imposed a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries starting September 1, set to rise to 4% in 2027. Solid-state and sodium-ion batteries remain exempt until the end of 2028. Leading manufacturers including EVE Energy and Lishen have already passed the 2% tax cost onto product quotes. With energy storage battery capacity utilization exceeding 90% and mainstream 314Ah ESS cells in tight supply, producers have gained greater pricing power.
2. Lithium Carbonate Price Slumps, Reshaping Industry Profit Structure
On September 11, the main lithium carbonate futures contract plunged nearly 10% intraday to a low of 128,000 yuan/ton. Spot prices stood at 142,300 yuan/ton, down over 35% from the May peak.
The pullback stems from slower-than-expected energy storage project rollouts, weakened demand forecasts for 2027, and ongoing inventory destocking across the supply chain. Notably, price trends have diverged sharply across segments: electrolyte and wet-process separator prices continue to climb, while ternary cathode and LFP prices track lower lithium costs, and anode prices hold steady. This gap reflects widening differences in supply-demand dynamics and bargaining power across production stages.
3. Dual Evolution of Policy and Technology Defines Long-Term Direction
In overseas markets, the European Commission recently proposed a new Public Procurement Act that prioritizes European suppliers for government purchases. Member states may reject bids where more than half of the product value originates outside the EU. The legislation will directly impact exports of large-scale energy storage systems and power batteries, accelerating localization efforts by major Chinese manufacturers in Europe.
On the technology front, the 2026 World Power Battery Conference unveiled breakthroughs including 10-minute ultra-fast charging and 350Wh/kg hybrid solid-liquid batteries, as solid-state technology moves closer to mass production. Meanwhile, CATL launched the largest share buyback program in A-share history (20–40 billion yuan), signaling industry leaders’ confidence in long-term value.
Short-Term Outlook
Production is expected to remain robust in Q4. Lithium prices may face continued near-term volatility. Market participants should monitor the pace of energy storage demand recovery, price transmission following the consumption tax implementation, and industrialization progress of new technology routes such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries.
