Export resilience strengthens, energy storage becomes key growth driver, sodium-ion batteries enter mass production era

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1. Exports: Diversified markets support growth

In Jan–Feb 2026, China’s lithium battery exports reached $14.2 billion, up 46% year-on-year. The EU remains the largest market (43.1% share), while the US share dropped to 9.7%. Emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia all grew over 200%, creating a more balanced global landscape.

2. Policy: VAT rebate phase-out drives industry upgrade

From April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate rate for batteries was cut from 9% to 6%, and will be fully removed from January 1, 2027. A short-term rush in overseas orders is seen, while the long-term effect will accelerate industry consolidation. Meanwhile, the government is also curbing “involution-style” price wars to guide high-quality development.

3. Technology: Sodium-ion mass production takes off, solid-state batteries ready

  • Sodium-ion batteries: CATL unveiled its sodium-ion battery for energy storage (over 15,000 cycles), with commercial deployment this year. Changan Auto will launch the first passenger car powered by CATL’s “NaXin” battery, offering a range over 400 km. 2026 is seen as the first year of large-scale sodium-ion battery applications.

  • Solid-state batteries: 2026 marks the mass-production year, with global shipments expected to reach 50 GWh. Semi-solid batteries are moving from pilot to scale-up.

4. Applications: Energy storage becomes core growth engine

  • Energy storage boom: In Jan–Feb 2026, new domestic storage installations surged 472% year-on-year, and tenders grew 73.3%. Mainstream cell prices have returned above RMB 0.4/Wh, with tight supply-demand balance.

  • AI data centers: The government work report first introduced “computing-power synergy,” making data center storage a new growth pole.

  • EV batteries: NEV exports grew 110% year-on-year, and power battery installations rose 37.4%.

5. Industry chain: Lithium carbonate prices rebound strongly

Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have reached RMB 166,000/ton, up over 160% from the 2025 low. Zimbabwe’s suspension of lithium concentrate exports and China’s new mining law raise costs. Coupled with strong demand, lithium companies’ profitability has significantly improved (e.g., Ganfeng Lithium’s net profit up 177%).

Summary

The lithium battery industry is undergoing a key transition in 2026: VAT rebate removal, sodium-ion industrialization, the rise of energy storage, and a shift from price wars to value competition. With the global energy transition firmly in place, long-term growth remains promising.