“King Ning’s” 2026 Gambit: Sodium-ion in One Hand, Solid-state in the Other

The battery industry has never been short of new concepts. What is truly scarce is the certainty that can be validated within the industry—the ability to guarantee stable supply, sustain a downward cost trajectory, and ensure that safety and consistency withstand the long-term demands of large-scale applications.

According to a December 29, 2025 report by *Caijing* magazine, at its Supplier Conference on December 28, CATL announced that it would deploy sodium-ion batteries on a large scale in 2026 across four major sectors: battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage. This announcement has sparked renewed attention on the commercialization of sodium-ion batteries.

By elevating the priority of sodium-ion batteries at this juncture, CATL’s move signifies more than just adding another technological path. It demonstrates the company’s willingness to first secure confirmed demand, strengthen confirmed delivery capabilities, and solidify confirmed advantages in cost and safety into orders and market share. The value of sodium-ion batteries lies in their faster path to large-scale application, while the value of solid-state batteries lies in their potential to redefine performance ceilings.

CATL’s simultaneous advancement of both paths is essentially a strategy to compete for both near-term orders and long-term pricing power on the same competitive playing field. The next round of competition in the battery industry will no longer be a battle between individual routes or technologies, but rather a prolonged tug-of-war with multiple paths advancing in parallel.

**Sodium-ion Batteries Ride the Wind: A Second Growth Curve**

CATL’s primary motivation for betting on sodium-ion batteries is the sustained high growth in power battery installations over the past year.

According to comprehensive information from Tianyancha media and data released by the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance on January 16, 2026, from January to December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 769.7 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. Among these, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 144.1 GWh, accounting for 18.7% of the total and growing by 3.7% year-on-year. The cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries was 625.3 GWh, accounting for 81.2% of the total and surging by 52.9% year-on-year.

When a single technology route dominates the market to such a high degree, industry growth can more easily devolve into homogeneous competition. To protect their market share, companies must offer differentiated supply capabilities, going beyond mere capacity expansion and price cuts. On April 21, 2025, at CATL’s inaugural “Super Tech Day,” the company framed the mass production of its new sodium-ion batteries as “effectively reducing dependence on lithium resources, solidifying the foundation of new energy, and advancing energy utilization from ‘reliance on a single resource’ towards ‘energy freedom.'” It simultaneously demonstrated the batteries’ applicability across full scenarios including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage, highlighting the advantages of its sodium-ion battery in extremely cold environments.

For CATL, sodium-ion technology is not just a single product; it represents an entry point into a new supply chain.

The cost of lithium-ion batteries often fluctuates with upstream resource prices. Sodium-ion batteries offer greater elasticity in resource availability, making it easier for manufacturers to establish more controllable supply capabilities for materials and, consequently, form a stable pricing advantage based on cost. The expansion of energy storage scenarios is further propelling the rise of sodium-ion batteries. Currently, energy storage demand is less sensitive to energy density compared to passenger vehicles but more sensitive to low-temperature performance, safety margins, cycle life, and places greater emphasis on system and operational costs.

For instance, as reported by Xinhua News Agency on October 8, 2025, the second-phase expansion and upgrade project of the Fulin Sodium-ion Battery Energy Storage Station in Wuming District, Nanning City, Guangxi, was officially put into operation. Since its initial operation in May 2024, the first phase of the project has cumulatively stored and released over 1.3 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity, playing a significant role in grid regulation and renewable energy consumption. The significance of such projects lies in sodium-ion batteries first gaining scale and reputation on the grid-side and industrial/commercial energy storage side.

From this perspective, once sodium-ion batteries achieve scale in energy storage and commercial vehicle sectors, CATL may possess another replicable growth curve, providing a relatively stable source of incremental revenue when lithium-ion battery prices fluctuate or profit margins in certain scenarios contract.

Of course, the practical challenges of sodium-ion batteries remain, primarily concerning energy density and scaled-up costs.

For sodium-ion batteries to make significant inroads into the mainstream passenger vehicle segment, continuous optimization is needed in the balance between energy density, system integration efficiency, and cost. By betting on sodium-ion technology, CATL is essentially betting that its engineering and manufacturing prowess can gradually address these issues and translate them into stable orders.

**Spot Supply vs. Futures Frenzy**

The difference between sodium-ion and solid-state batteries is first reflected in their industrial readiness. The advantage of sodium-ion lies in its faster path to scalable supply. Its key value often comes from solving practical pain points, such as low-temperature usability, safety margins, and cost stability, making it easier to generate large-scale orders in scenarios like energy storage and commercial vehicles. Solid-state batteries, in contrast, are more like a challenge to performance limits, pursuing higher energy density, stronger safety margins, and better fast-charging potential, but face significantly higher difficulties from materials to manufacturing.

In this sense, sodium-ion batteries resemble spot supply, while solid-state batteries are more akin to forward-looking expectations.

According to publicly available information from Tianyancha and data from Gaogong Industry Institute (GGII), the effective production capacity of sodium-ion battery enterprises is expected to reach approximately 19 GWh, 25 GWh, and 60 GWh in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. In terms of shipments, 2025 is projected to see a jump to around 20 GWh, exceeding 200 GWh by 2030. Sodium-ion batteries can more quickly provide deliverable system solutions and generate actual operational data in energy storage projects and certain transportation scenarios. Solid-state batteries, however, are more readily used by capital and markets as an imagination space for future valuation, especially when industry competition intensifies and profits for single products shrink. Solid-state often serves as a narrative for more distant growth stories.

CATL’s push for sodium-ion batteries carries industrial significance not in negating solid-state, but in re-prioritizing the power battery landscape. As long as sodium-ion batteries can rapidly scale in scenarios like energy storage and commercial vehicles, they will create a new procurement stratification for downstream customers: near-term demand would be met by sodium-ion and LFP batteries, while solid-state caters more to high-end and long-term needs. Consequently, for solid-state batteries to achieve the same procurement priority, they must present more definitive mass production timelines and competitive cost curves.

Viewed through the lens of industrial competition, CATL is not the sole major player in solid-state batteries; this market is already full of pioneers. However, judging from its heavy bet on sodium-ion batteries, its strategic layout—including that for solid-state—determines its tactical trade-offs within a certain period. For example, public reports show that some manufacturers have provided clearer progress and supply potential for semi-solid-state routes. This indicates that solid-state is not merely a concept; it is more likely to first enter high-end and small-scale applications in a semi-solid-state form before gradually progressing towards higher solid content or full solid-state.

This re-prioritization of power battery technologies is already becoming evident. According to the CATL Investor Relations Activity Record (No. 2025-005, dated October 20, 2025), the company’s combined shipments of power and energy storage batteries in the third quarter of 2025 were close to 180 GWh, with energy storage accounting for approximately 20%. It noted, “The company’s released Sodium New Battery has passed the new national standard certification,” and that “Sodium New passenger vehicle power batteries are under development and implementation with customers, with progress proceeding smoothly.” From this perspective, sodium-ion batteries also represent an expansion of CATL’s own boundaries.

Therefore, once sodium-ion batteries become a certain incremental contributor, their significance extends far beyond adding a new product line. They essentially set a “discount benchmark” based on present cash flows for the valuation of “long-term futures” like solid-state batteries. Just as financial markets must discount future earnings to present value using an interest rate, the large-scale delivery and stable cash flow of sodium-ion batteries in sectors like energy storage and commercial vehicles provide a referencable risk-free rate.

From this point on, the premium space for solid-state batteries will face a dual assessment: one based on their long-term technological potential ceiling, and the other based on their short- to medium-term industrialization progress and cost curve. The narrative for solid-state must shift from “why it’s possible” to “when and at what price it can be delivered,” and must withstand pressure under the realities of industrialization.

**A Variable Emerges in the ‘One Superpower, Multiple Strong Players’ Energy Landscape**

CATL’s heavy bet on sodium-ion batteries does not aim to push solid-state off the table, but rather to redirect industry resources from single-line expectations back to delivery competition.

For solid-state batteries to maintain high expectations, they need to convince customers with clearer mass production schedules, cost curves, and more stable supply plans. Sodium-ion batteries, meanwhile, need to prove their practical value with longer-term operational data, larger-scale supply volumes, and more stable full life-cycle costs.

With one hand betting heavily on sodium-ion and the other not letting go of solid-state, CATL’s approach resembles a race for industry dominance rather than a single-technology gamble.

Sodium-ion batteries are closer to the immediate incremental demand in energy storage and some commercial scenarios, while solid-state batteries are closer to the long-term ticket for high-end performance and next-generation platforms. Pursuing both in parallel shifts the mainline competition from waiting for a single endgame to a complex game field where multiple technological routes, various commercial scenarios, and several leading players operate simultaneously.

As sodium-ion batteries achieve widespread adoption in multiple points like energy storage, commercial vehicle auxiliary power, and low-speed power, the industry structure will transition from the lithium-ion era of “one superpower, multiple strong players” to a new form characterized by “one superpower, multiple strong players” superimposed with multi-route racing. CATL’s large-scale deployment of sodium-ion batteries essentially involves securing positions ahead of time at the cost inflection point for energy storage and incremental scenarios, while the main battlefield is still dominated by LFP and ternary batteries, simultaneously reducing dependence on the cycle of a single resource.

According to publicly available information from Tianyancha and a November 21, 2025 report by *Cailian Press*, at the Gaogong Lithium Battery Annual Conference, Bai Houshan, Chairman of Ronbay Technology, stated that the development trend of batteries is towards non-rare, non-critical, and inexpensive materials. He predicted that by 2035, the ratio of LFP batteries to sodium-ion batteries would be 4:6. By then, the demand for LFP cathode materials would reach 15 million tons, and the demand for sodium-ion battery cathode materials would reach 20 million tons.

Competition is rapidly heating up. The aforementioned *Cailian Press* report pointed out that on July 16, 2025, BYD officially announced the commencement of production at its sodium-ion battery production line in Xining, Qinghai. On September 24, 2025, Eve Energy’s first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system successfully completed grid-connected adjust at its Jingmen base, officially transitioning to commercial operation.

Earlier, on April 29, 2025, *Economic Information Daily* reported that HiNa Battery released its sodium-ion battery commercial vehicle solution, signaling the product’s move from demonstration to the daily operation of power stations, placing greater emphasis on cell system efficiency, operational costs, and long-term reliability.

For CATL, the increase in industry participants naturally raises the competitive threshold. Once sodium-ion batteries enter the regular operation of power systems and industrial/commercial energy storage, customer requirements for supply stability and full life-cycle service will quickly approach those of mature lithium-ion energy storage. Moreover, while advancing both sodium-ion and solid-state lines, CATL also needs to maintain the scale advantage of its LFP and energy storage businesses. With LFP’s share in the domestic installation structure reaching 81.2%, any fluctuations in supply stability or the cost curve will be magnified by the market.

For vehicle manufacturers and energy storage customers, the parallel development of multiple routes means procurement portfolios will be more diversified, with pricing power relying more on comprehensive delivery capabilities and full life-cycle costs rather than a single metric. For battery companies, multi-route parallel development implies more complex capacity allocation and material supply. By betting on a full matrix, CATL is actively choosing to vie for dominance in a more complex competitive environment. The ultimate outcome is more likely to be determined collectively by scale delivery, cost reduction speed, customer acceptance, and localization capabilities, rather than by a single breakthrough in any one technology.

**In Conclusion**

Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries are not in a relationship of mutual replacement; they are more like two commercial paths on different timelines.

Sodium-ion defines priority based on real-world demand, while solid-state defines the imagination space based on performance ceilings. By revealing its strategy at this moment, CATL is emphasizing the tangible, scalable delivery metrics of sodium-ion at a time when the industry is being pulled by long-term visions, while simultaneously retaining its long-term chip for solid-state.

What the industry truly needs to focus on is not which route is more advanced, but which one can achieve stable supply faster, establish long-term advantages in cost and safety, and foster sustained repurchases and stronger stickiness at the customer level.

Once sodium-ion batteries achieve scale in energy storage and commercial scenarios, expectations for solid-state will rely more heavily on deliverable timelines,no longer relying solely on concepts and technological experiments themselves. This will also become a significant watershed in the next round of competition in the battery industry.