Lithium Battery Update: Price Rally, Solid-State Acceleration & Trade Headwinds

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Lithium Prices Remain High, Supply-Demand Balance Tightens

As of April 3, battery-grade lithium carbonate is quoted at RMB 158,000/ton, up more than 120% from its low last year. Despite a recent pullback, the tight supply pattern remains unchanged. Institutions forecast a shortage of tens of thousands of tons in the global lithium market in 2026, with energy storage demand becoming a key growth driver.

Large-Capacity ESS Cells Enter Mass Production, Order Backlogs Lengthen

At the ESIE 2026 exhibition, 500Ah+ large-capacity battery cells have entered the delivery phase. Leading manufacturers have order backlogs extending to Q1 2027. Semi-solid state ESS cells have achieved breakthroughs in safety, and the energy storage sector is now facing supply shortages.

Solid-State Battery Commercialization Accelerates

Chery, SAIC, Eve Energy, and BYD have announced solid-state battery progress, with energy densities exceeding 400Wh/kg and vehicle installation scheduled for 2026–2027. In the two-wheeler segment, semi-solid state batteries have already achieved commercial deployment, marking a critical window for industrialization.

Export Tax Rebate Reduced, Compliance Hurdles Rise

Starting April 1, the export tax rebate rate for lithium batteries was cut from 9% to 6%, and will be fully eliminated by 2027. EU battery regulations will mandate a “digital battery passport” for all EV and industrial batteries from 2027. The U.S. has raised Section 301 tariffs on Chinese stationary energy storage batteries to 25%. Exporters face dual challenges of rising costs and stricter compliance.